Lessons for Luxon

From Mid-Term Misery to Mandate

To some, Labor’s strong win in the 2025 Australian election is proof that election winds once again blow towards the centre-left. It’s a vindication of “kindness” “inclusion” and taxing and spending. They see it as nothing short of a rebuke to small-government conservatism and yet another sign that voters crave climate targets and gender audits more than balanced budgets and bread on the table.

So National has to be worried. Right?

The political superstition of reading the entrails of a foreign election has a long pedigree. One of my political memories as a footsoldier in the 2008 election was the way New Zealand Labour clutched at Obama’s momentum like a talisman. The cultural mood music of a global leftward shift was more comforting than hard reflection on the domestic fatigue that were in play in both New Zealand and the United States at the time.

The true lesson of Albanese’s turnaround is not ideological. It is practical. Labor’s resurgence was not the result of voters falling back in love with the left but of a governing party learning, adapting and capitalising on its institutional strengths.

It was, in truth, a triumph of incumbency over incompetence. It showed the value of steadiness. And for Christopher Luxon, who will face his own judgment in 2026, it contains valuable lessons about boxing on through discontent.

When Albanese lost his referendum on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament in 2023, it seemed to confirm a political slide already well underway. Australians, buffeted by high interest rates and grocery bills that gnawed at every pay packet, had cooled on their new prime minister. Polling showed the opposition Liberal-National Coalition overtaking Labor for the first time since its 2022 election defeat.

Albanese’s personal approval ratings cratered.

Yet by the first quarter of 2025, Labor was leading again. And come the campaign proper, it became increasingly obvious that Peter Dutton’s Coalition had squandered its best shot. So what happened?

The first lesson is simple: mid-term pain need not be fatal. Albanese weathered falling real wages, spiking interest rates and a divisive constitutional campaign. The public wasn’t thrilled. But his government did not panic. There was no leadership coup, no reshuffle to signal chaos.

Instead, Labor methodically reset its message on the cost-of-living.

Polling bounces. A disciplined team that stays focused on voters’ everyday concerns can ride out even a prolonged trough. What mattered to Australians in 2024 was not whether Labor had erred, but whether it had learned.

Second, first term incumbency is a gift but only if used wisely. As inflation cooled and economic indicators improved, Albanese was able to point to tangible accomplishments: cheaper medicines, subsidised childcare, more apprenticeships and a pair of budget surpluses.

These policies may not have stirred the soul, but they soothed the wallet. Dutton, by contrast, offered culture war battles and little of substance.

In New Zealand, Luxon must make his government’s record visible and credible. Ministers should be seen sweating the details, delivering policies that cut through to real households. More Chris Penks in other words.

As Albanese discovered, it is easier to sell governing as competence than excitement. The promise of stability counts for more than social media provocation.

Third, oppositions can be their own worst enemies. For months, Labor's woes appeared terminal. But Dutton floundered. His campaign lacked coherence. He made gaffes, indulged in hard-right posturing, and failed to reassure swinging voters that he was prime ministerial.

Albanese regained the upper hand by being simply less chaotic.

The New Zealand Labour Party will be tempted to pursue a similarly combative strategy against Luxon. Chris Hipkins is also a combative leader. The Australian experience shows that governments can win not by dazzling, but by looking like the safer bet.

Luxon should seek to embody calm in a noisy age. Let Labour yell. National can govern.

Fourth, know when to pivot. Albanese’s 2023 was all about the Voice. By 2024, it was all about the cost of living. That shift wasn’t graceful, but it was doggedly executed. Voters can forgive a government that makes mistakes.

What they don’t forgive is one that appears not to learn from them. Luxon, too, must read the public mood with humility and agility. Blaming the mess he inherited won’t cut it.

Finally, talk about the future. One of the best things about Labor’s 2025 campaign was its message discipline: asking voters who would leave them better off in three years rather than who had disappointed them over the last three.

Albanese didn't deny past hardship. He chose to reframe it. The narrative moved from retrospective grumbling to forward-looking hope.

Luxon should consider a similar tack. New Zealanders are just as pragmatic as Australians. We will accept a rough start if they sense progress. The trick is not to win every argument, but to win the one that matters: who best understands where the country needs to go, and how to get there.

It’s also important not to overread the comparison. Labor’s recovery, while impressive, came in a political environment that was structurally friendlier to them than what National faces in New Zealand. Albanese benefited from a largely sympathetic media, particularly in the public broadcasters and major metropolitan outlets.

Critical coverage of Peter Dutton was often fierce. Labor’s missteps were softened or buried. That’s just the way of the world.

Luxon must operate in a far less forgiving press climate. The New Zealand media will be quicker to amplify protest, frame National as callous or extreme and recycle liberal talking points as received wisdom. Any comparison between the two political contexts needs to account for this asymmetry.

But if Albanese’s path to re-election proves anything, it’s that humility, steadiness and a willingness to listen can still carry the day. Voters do not demand perfection. They do expect a government to learn, adjust and keep its bearings.