Operation Albatross

How Willie Jackson and Rawiri Waititi just might hand re-election to the coalition

“Instead of the cross, the Albatross. About my neck was hung.”

So wrote Coleridge in The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, describing the punishment of a sailor who killed a bird of omen. The albatross, once a symbol of hope and fortune, is placed around his neck. It’s a burden worn publicly, a warning to others.

In this way, the albatross becomes a symbol of a thing that you must carry, publicly and painfully, until either it destroys you or you reckon with your mistake.

In 2025, Chris Hipkins finds himself weighed down by his own albatross. A political alliance he cannot disown, a partner he cannot discipline, and a burden he cannot shed without sinking his chances of returning to power.

Labour Can’t Win Without TPM

The 2026 election will be close, and Labour has a fundamental problem: they need Te Pāti Māori to govern, but TPM’s approach may cost them the votes to get there.

There are no polls that show Labour and the Greens able to govern alone. Winston Peters has publicly ruled out working with Chris Hipkins, and Hipkins in 2023 declared he would “never again” form a government with Peters.

The problem is that TPM does not behave like a conventional political party. It presents serious issues to Labour. And there are several, interlocking reasons for that.

The Media’s Gentle Treatment

First is how the media covers TPM. Journalists treat the party with a mixture of reverence and fear. Their MPs are described as authentic, passionate, courageous. There is very little investigative scrutiny, are almost no hostile interviews and a deep reluctance to label misconduct as misconduct.

By contrast, both ACT and even the Greens, have been regularly challenged, fact-checked and forced to evolve. That pressure shaped them into more disciplined political forces. TPM has never had to go through that fire. As a result, it has never developed the kind of internal brakes that are needed to be an acceptable coalition partner.

The public’s unambiguous verdict

All this would be one thing if TPM only alienated the right. But they also alienate the middle. Arguably, they also alienate the centre left.

Polling from Curia reinforces this: only 1.5% of voters say TPM is best on the economy. On inflation, health, and education, their scores are similarly low. Their only standout issue is the Treaty, where they lead among the narrow band of voters for whom that is the salient issue while also being the most divisive political issue in the country.

The gulf between the media and the public over the suspension of Te Pāti Māori MPs could not have been more stark. While journalists denounced the overreach of the Privileges Committee, the public had no such confusion. A Reid Research poll found that 54% of New Zealanders supported the suspensions or thought they were too lenient, with just 36% believing they were too harsh.

Among Labour voters, nearly a third backed the punishment. This disconnect isn’t just about one vote in Parliament. It reflects a broader pattern: a media class enamoured with TPM’s defiance, and a public increasingly weary of theatre being passed off as principle.

Willie Jackson: Labour’s Internal Constraint