There's a first time for everything
And what are the chances of this being a one-term government?
New Zealand's parliamentary term is set at three years. This framework theoretically allows for the possibility of governments of just three-years duration, which has happened to Labour twice. It has never happened for any National government, however, which has never won less than three elections.
The average tenure of a National government is more than nine years long. For Labour, it’s less than seven. If we exclude the extraordinarily long lived first Labour government, the average is less than six.
This sometimes leads to the observation that National is the "natural party of government" in New Zealand. The primary utility of this contention is that it gets up the nose of Labour supporters, but there is a little something to it. There is a pattern of sustained electoral success and stability for National government’s that Labour has not historically matched.
This can breed a sense of complacency within National’s ranks and even among its leadership. In its most annoying form, this manifests in a "born to rule" attitude. This image in turn attracts individuals who somehow think they are elite despite the fact that they live in New Zealand, akin to what was once described in Australia as the "Bunyip aristocracy."
This complacency may not be so well placed in 2024.
From Sidney Holland on, it was always a bit of a given that National leaders would ascend to the prime ministership before losing or giving up the leadership. Jim McLay was the sole outlier. Then Bill English was dumped for Don Brash in 2003. While English eventually got his wish, a new pattern took hold.
Don Brash didn’t become prime minister, of course. The same goes for Simon Bridges, Todd Muller or Judith Collins have not become prime minister. What was once unthinkable has become commonplace.
In the sixty years leading up to 2000, there were seven National Party leaders and six of them became PM. In the twenty-four years since there have been eight and only three of them have become PM. Things change.
Christopher Luxon no doubt aspires to be a long-tenured Prime Minister. They all do. But this cannot be taken for granted.
At the moment, polling shows National, ACT and NZ First coalition with an edge. That’s despite serious economic headwinds, a noticeably belligerent press corps and an at times hostile public service.
Those working in and for the government will rightly point out that in such circumstances, they’re actually doing pretty well. The trouble is doing pretty well might not be enough. The best efforts of talented and hardworking people can only do so much when they are swimming against the prevailing tide.
Those tides are challenging. People across the country are grappling with financial difficulties and struggling to pay bills. When they are paying them, they’re slower to do so. Farms have struggled with the weather.
This always leads to discontent with the government, regardless of its actual culpability. The electorate soon lose patience wanes when politicians deflect responsibility by blaming their predecessors. After all, its the new government that put its hand up to fix things and promised it could do so.
Despite this, the levers of economic policy that a government can pull to stimulate immediate improvement in the economy are limited. Economic conditions are subject to force majeure and the changes governments can make require time to implement and take effect. However, admitting such limitations is politically impossible for governments and oppositions alike.
The actions or state of the opposition is another thing beyond the government’s control. After demonstrable economic improvement, disarray within Labour is the best thing National could hope for. Voters may seek stability and competence in alternatives and when they don’t have an alternative that exudes those characteristics they’ll stick with what they know.
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