Welcome to the year of our Lord, 2024

And why it’s going to suck.

Photo by Jonathon Young on Unsplash

Today is the first day of the year. It’s going to bite. Here’s why.

The economy might begin to pick up in the back nine, but the start of the year is going to be brutal. Retail spending was pretty weak leading up to Christmas and it’s not likely to improve as long as interest rates remain high. The businesses that survive the next three months are going to be well placed going forward but there’s going to be a lot of pain between there and here.

With that, unemployment is probably going to increase. Like low interest rates, we’ve been so accustomed to full employment for so long that we’ve kind of taken it for granted. A spike is joblessness is almost inevitable and all we can do is pray that it is sharp but short.

Food prices may have stabilised but they’ve done so at a high. Slower wage growth means the cost of living is going to remain a problem. On the fuel front the best that we can probably hope for is a decline in the rate of increase. Housing is going to remain tight with people still rolling off lower fixed rates into the new reality of much increased mortgage payments.

Looking overseas, we will suffer from the ongoing Red Sea crisis, and we will see the return of supply chain issues. This vital trade corridor is currently being held hostage by Iranian backed Houthi militants causing world shipping to be greatly delayed and costs to spike. Which is going to suck.

war will continue to be a permanent part of the human condition, promising to extend the cycles of misery and heartbreak across the continents. The ongoing conflict in the Holy Land and Ukraine will hold our attention. Less will be paid to the mess of internal conflicts in Myanmar, spanning from the Kachin to the Rohingya crises, which have already cost hundreds of thousands of lives and shows little sign of resolution. The Islamist insurgency in the Maghreb and Sahel regions of Africa, along with the Mexican drug war and civil wars in Ethiopia and Sudan will continue to spread misery to little Western attention.  

There’s going to be a presidential election in Venezuela. We can all hope that this poor country is able to claw its way back from tyranny and socialist mismanagement. Sadly, things aren’t looking good with the main opposition leader having been banned from standing lasting year for challenging the legitimacy of the election of Nicholas Maduro in 2019.

Assuming he beats similar tactics, Donald Trump seems likely to win the nomination of the Grand Old Party for the US Presidential election. Any US election is bad news as the world’s attention is drawn towards an event, resulting in infuriating local media coverage. This one is going to be particularly bad, however, as it promises to be a bigger, dumber sequel to the 2020 contest.

Coarse vulgarian former game show host or confused old man who struggles to finish sentences? What a choice!

In other imperial decline news, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is also going to hold a general election this year. While the American outcome is very much up in the air, this one is a foregone conclusion. The Tories are going to be absolutely crushed.

If scientists are to be believed, we can expect an increase in the frequency and severity of cyclones, tornadoes, and floods.

Some beloved celebrities are going to die this year. I am not going to be so ghoulish as to post a list of likely obits, but it is unavoidable given the passage of time and the limitations of human lifespans. This will make many of us feel old and depressed about feeling old as we are confronted with the grim inevitability of our own mortality.

After a terrible box office in 2023, things don’t look that much better for this year. High profile projects by major studios have been delayed as film studios grapple with bloated costs and the tricky phenomenon of people not wanting to see cruddy offerings. We’re going to get Dune II, at least, but also Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire and, somehow, sequels to Gladiator and Beetlejuice (?!).

People are going to be mean to each other on the Internet, mental health will continue to worsen, people will continue to self-diagnose themselves with ADHD and/or autism on Tik Tok, a general sense of ennui will continue to intensify as social capital continues to decline.

What is to be done about it all? Not much, unfortunately. We don’t as individuals or families alter the course of global, national or even local affairs or cultural trends.

All you can do in 2024 is look after your family, be better at keeping the garden tidy, be friendly to your neighbours, read more books, go out of your way to help those who need it, try to get fit and spend less time in the fake world of the Internet. Or, as my oldest kid says, go outside and touch grass once in a while.